Note: For a complete analysis of 2014 Q4 estimates, please check out weekly Earnings Trends report. Note: Want more articles from this author? Scroll up to the top of this article and click the FOLLOW AUTHOR button to get an email each time a new article is published. But this growth picture will look very different once Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and ConocoPhillips report results this week (Exxon reports the following week). The Q4 Energy sector results that we have seen thus far are fairly strong, with total earnings for the 14.8% of the sector’s market capitalization that have reported results are up +24.2% on +9.3% higher revenues. The table below presents the summary picture for Q4 contrasted with what companies actually reported in the Q3 earnings season. The Energy sector has the weakest growth profile for understandable reasons, with total earnings for the sector expected to be down -24.6% on -16.0% lower revenues. While the growth picture isn’t expected to materially change, but we will know for sure only at the end of this week.Ĭombining the actual results for the 91 S&P 500 companies that have reported with the 409 still-to-come reports, total Q4 earnings are expected to be up +1.9% on -0.6% lower revenues.įour sectors – Transportation, Medical, Utilities and Business Services –are expected to have double-digit earnings growth in Q4, while five sectors are expected to have lower total earnings this quarter relative to the year-earlier period. This week brings in the ‘growthier’ and more glamourous of the sector players like Facebook, Google and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Most of the sector results thus far have been the legacy old line Tech players like IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) and others. The table below shows the current scorecard for the S&P 500 index Total revenues are up +2.1% from the same period last year and 50.5% of them are coming ahead with top-line estimates. Total earnings for these companies are up +3.2% from the same period last year, with 73.6% beating EPS estimates. We have seen Q4 results from 91 S&P 500 members that combined account for 25.5% of the index’s total market capitalization. But the trends established this week will carry through the rest of this reporting cycle with only minor changes. This week will either fully confirm the weak start we have had thus far or turn it around in the opposite direction. As such, it may not be unfair to characterize this week as a make or break week for the Q4 earnings season. This week’s line-up packs plenty of leaders from all the key sectors, ranging from Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) to Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Dupont (NYSE: DFT) and much more in between. The reporting cycle really accelerates this week, with almost 500 companies coming out with Q4 results, including 136 S&P 500 members. But aside from high proportion of companies beating EPS estimates, the results thus far don’t compare favorably to the recent past, whether looked at with or without the Finance sector. Weak results from the Finance sector has been a big drag on the aggregate picture at this stage and the growth rates improve once Finance is excluded from the aggregate numbers. The picture emerging from the 2014 Q4 earnings season at this stage is one of weakness, with earnings and revenue growth rates tracking below levels that we have been seeing in other recent periods.
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